Montana House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Monica Tranel a 75% chance of winning the Montana House 2022 primary. Monica Tranel won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Monica Tranel — 75% model odds (won)
  2. Cora Neumann — 14% model odds
  3. Scattered — 6% model odds
  4. Tom Winter — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts