Mississippi House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michael Cassidy a 55% chance of winning the Mississippi House 2022 primary. Michael Guest won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Michael Cassidy — 55% model odds
2. Michael Guest — 35% model odds (won)
3. Thomas Griffin — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts