Missouri House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dakota Shultz a 43% chance of winning the Missouri House 2022 primary. Sam Graves won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Dakota Shultz — 43% model odds
2. Sam Graves — 29% model odds (won)
3. Christopher Ryan — 9% model odds
4. Brandon Kleinmeyer — 9% model odds
5. John Dady — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts