Missouri House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ann Wagner a 73% chance of winning the Missouri House 2022 primary. Ann Wagner won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Ann Wagner — 73% model odds (won)
2. Tony Salvatore — 9% model odds
3. Wesley Smith — 9% model odds
4. Paul, Iii Berry — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts