Michigan House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Portia Roberson a 26% chance of winning the Michigan House 2022 primary. Shri Thanedar won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Portia Roberson — 26% model odds
  2. Shri Thanedar — 20% model odds (won)
  3. Adam Hollier — 20% model odds
  4. John Conyers — 4% model odds
  5. Sherry Gay-Dagnogo — 4% model odds
  6. Sharon Mcphail — 4% model odds
  7. Michael Griffie — 4% model odds
  8. Sam Riddle — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts