Michigan House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Rashida Tlaib a 68% chance of winning the Michigan House 2022 primary. Rashida Tlaib won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Rashida Tlaib — 68% model odds (won)
  2. Shanelle Jackson — 19% model odds
  3. Janice Winfrey — 8% model odds
  4. Kelly Garrett — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts