Maryland Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chris Van Hollen a 71% chance of winning the Maryland Senate 2022 primary. Chris Van Hollen won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Chris Van Hollen — 71% model odds (won)
  2. Michelle L. Smith — 29% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts