Maryland House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Sarbanes an 82% chance of winning the Maryland House 2022 primary. John Sarbanes won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Sarbanes — 82% model odds (won)
2. Ben R. Beardsley — 9% model odds
3. Jake Pretot — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts