Massachusetts House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Hamilton Soares Rodrigues a 76% chance of winning the Massachusetts House 2022 primary. Robert G. Burke won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Hamilton Soares Rodrigues — 76% model odds
2. Robert G. Burke — 12% model odds (won)
3. All Others — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts