Kentucky Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Rand Paul a 32% chance of winning the Kentucky Senate 2022 primary. Rand Paul won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Rand Paul — 32% model odds (won)
  2. Valerie "Dr. Val" Fredrick — 14% model odds
  3. Paul V. Hamilton — 14% model odds
  4. Arnold Blankenship — 14% model odds
  5. Tami L. Stainfield — 14% model odds
  6. John Schiess — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts