Kentucky House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Harold "Hal" Rogers an 82% chance of winning the Kentucky House 2022 primary. Harold "Hal" Rogers won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Harold "Hal" Rogers — 82% model odds (won)
  2. Jeannette Andrews — 5% model odds
  3. Brandon Russell Monhollen — 5% model odds
  4. Rich Van Dam — 5% model odds
  5. Gerardo Serrano — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts