Kentucky House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Thomas Massie a 79% chance of winning the Kentucky House 2022 primary. Thomas Massie won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Thomas Massie — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Alyssa Dara Mcdowell — 7% model odds
  3. George Washington — 7% model odds
  4. Claire Wirth — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts