Illinois Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kathy Salvi a 14% chance of winning the Illinois Senate 2022 primary. Kathy Salvi won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Kathy Salvi — 14% model odds (won)
  2. Peggy Hubbard — 14% model odds
  3. Matthew "Matt" Dubiel — 14% model odds
  4. Casey Chlebek — 14% model odds
  5. Robert "Bobby" Piton — 14% model odds
  6. Anthony W. Williams — 14% model odds
  7. Jimmy Lee, Ii Tillman — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts