Illinois House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Koolidge a 30% chance of winning the Illinois House 2022 primary. Scott R. Gryder won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Mike Koolidge — 30% model odds
  2. Scott R. Gryder — 22% model odds (won)
  3. James T. "Jim" Marter — 22% model odds
  4. Jaime Milton — 21% model odds
  5. Jack, Ii Lombardi — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts