Illinois House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Catalina Lauf a 54% chance of winning the Illinois House 2022 primary. Catalina Lauf won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Catalina Lauf — 54% model odds (won)
  2. Susan L. Hathaway-Altman — 20% model odds
  3. Mark Joseph Carroll — 9% model odds
  4. Jerry Evans — 6% model odds
  5. Cassandra Tanner Miller — 6% model odds
  6. Andrea Heeg — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts