Illinois House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Phillip Owen Wood a 67% chance of winning the Illinois House 2022 primary. Chris Dargis won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Phillip Owen Wood — 67% model odds
  2. Chris Dargis — 8% model odds (won)
  3. Peter Kopsaftis — 8% model odds
  4. Karen Kolodziej — 8% model odds
  5. Chad Koppie — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts