Illinois House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Keith Pekau a 77% chance of winning the Illinois House 2022 primary. Keith Pekau won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Keith Pekau — 77% model odds (won)
  2. Gary Grasso — 6% model odds
  3. Catherine A. Oshea — 6% model odds
  4. Scott R. Kaspar — 4% model odds
  5. Robert "Rob" Cruz — 3% model odds
  6. Niki Conforti — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts