Illinois House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ashley Ramos a 65% chance of winning the Illinois House 2022 primary. Thomas Lynch won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Ashley Ramos — 65% model odds
  2. Thomas Lynch — 18% model odds (won)
  3. Shane Cultra — 18% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts