Idaho Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Crapo a 53% chance of winning the Idaho Senate 2022 primary. Mike Crapo won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Mike Crapo — 53% model odds (won)
2. Ramont Turnbull — 34% model odds
3. Scott Trotter — 4% model odds
4. Brenda Bourn — 4% model odds
5. Natalie M. Fleming — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts