Idaho House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Simpson a 68% chance of winning the Idaho House 2022 primary. Mike Simpson won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Mike Simpson — 68% model odds (won)
2. Bryan Smith — 16% model odds
3. Flint L. Christensen — 5% model odds
4. Chris Porter — 5% model odds
5. Daniel Algiers Lucas Levy — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts