Iowa Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chuck Grassley an 81% chance of winning the Iowa Senate 2022 primary. Chuck Grassley won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Chuck Grassley — 81% model odds (won)
  2. Jim Carlin — 9% model odds
  3. Scattered — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts