Hawaii Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Wallyn Kanoelani Christian a 34% chance of winning the Hawaii Senate 2022 primary. Bob Mcdermott won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Wallyn Kanoelani Christian — 34% model odds
  2. Bob Mcdermott — 13% model odds (won)
  3. Timothy A. Dalhouse — 13% model odds
  4. Steven R. Bond — 13% model odds
  5. Asia Lavonne — 13% model odds
  6. Emma Jane A. Pohlman — 13% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts