Hawaii House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jill N. Tokuda a 77% chance of winning the Hawaii House 2022 primary. Jill N. Tokuda won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Jill N. Tokuda — 77% model odds (won)
  2. Patrick Pihana Branco — 6% model odds
  3. Kyle T. Yoshida — 4% model odds
  4. Brendan Schultz — 4% model odds
  5. Nicole Gi — 4% model odds
  6. Steven B. Sparks — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts