Florida House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Carlos Garin a 70% chance of winning the Florida House 2022 primary. Carlos A. Gimenez won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Carlos Garin — 70% model odds
  2. Carlos A. Gimenez — 15% model odds (won)
  3. Karl "Kw" Miller — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts