Florida House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jared Moskowitz a 77% chance of winning the Florida House 2022 primary. Jared Moskowitz won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Jared Moskowitz — 77% model odds (won)
2. Ben Sorensen — 6% model odds
3. Hava Holzhauer — 4% model odds
4. Allen Ellison — 4% model odds
5. W. Michael "Mike" Trout — 4% model odds
6. Michaelangelo Collins Hamilton — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts