Florida House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Deborah Adeimy a 50% chance of winning the Florida House 2022 primary. Dan Franzese won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Deborah Adeimy — 50% model odds
2. Dan Franzese — 12% model odds (won)
3. Rod Dorilas — 12% model odds
4. Peter Steven Arianas — 12% model odds
5. Carrie Lawlor — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts