Florida House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Laurel Lee a 54% chance of winning the Florida House 2022 primary. Laurel Lee won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Laurel Lee — 54% model odds (won)
  2. Jackie Toledo — 33% model odds
  3. Kelli Stargel — 6% model odds
  4. Demetries "Commander" Grimes — 4% model odds
  5. Kevin "Mac" Mcgovern — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts