Florida House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Natalie Jackson a 15% chance of winning the Florida House 2022 primary. Maxwell Alejandro Frost won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Natalie Jackson — 15% model odds
  2. Maxwell Alejandro Frost — 9% model odds (won)
  3. Randolph Bracy — 9% model odds
  4. Alan Grayson — 9% model odds
  5. Corrine Brown — 9% model odds
  6. Teresa Tachon — 9% model odds
  7. Jeffrey Boone — 9% model odds
  8. Terence R. Gray — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts