Florida House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Leigha "Luna" Lopez a 71% chance of winning the Florida House 2022 primary. John H. Rutherford won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Leigha "Luna" Lopez — 71% model odds
  2. John H. Rutherford — 14% model odds (won)
  3. Mara H Macie — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts