Florida House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Aaron Bean a 59% chance of winning the Florida House 2022 primary. Aaron Bean won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Aaron Bean — 59% model odds (won)
  2. Erick Aguilar — 32% model odds
  3. Jon Chuba — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts