Florida House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Gaetz a 78% chance of winning the Florida House 2022 primary. Matt Gaetz won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Matt Gaetz — 78% model odds (won)
  2. Mark Lombardo — 11% model odds
  3. Greg Merk — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts