Connecticut House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jayme Stevenson a 34% chance of winning the Connecticut House 2022 primary. Jayme Stevenson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jayme Stevenson — 34% model odds
  2. Jayme Stevenson — 34% model odds (won)
  3. Ethan Book — 13% model odds
  4. Tj Elgin — 13% model odds
  5. Michael Ted Goldstein — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts