California Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jon Elist an 8% chance of winning the California Senate 2022 primary. Mark P. Meuser won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Jon Elist — 8% model odds
2. Myron L. Hall — 8% model odds
3. Lijun Zhou — 8% model odds
4. Mark P. Meuser — 5% model odds (won)
5. James P. Bradley — 5% model odds
6. Myron L. Hall — 5% model odds
7. Mark P. Meuser — 5% model odds (won)
8. Cordie Williams — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts