California Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Deon D. Jenkins a 14% chance of winning the California Senate 2022 primary. Daphne Bradford won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Deon D. Jenkins — 14% model odds
2. Daphne Bradford — 9% model odds (won)
3. John Thompson Parker — 9% model odds
4. Irene Ratliff — 9% model odds
5. John Thompson Parker — 9% model odds (won)
6. Eleanor Garcia — 9% model odds
7. Daphne Bradford — 9% model odds
8. Don J. Grundmann — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts