California Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Akinyemi Agbede a 17% chance of winning the California Senate 2022 primary. Alex Padilla won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Akinyemi Agbede — 17% model odds
  2. Alex Padilla — 11% model odds (won)
  3. Timothy, Jr. Ursich — 11% model odds
  4. Dan O'Dowd — 11% model odds
  5. Alex Padilla — 11% model odds (won)
  6. Dan O'Dowd — 11% model odds
  7. Timothy J Ursich — 11% model odds
  8. Obaidul Huq Pirjada — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts