California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sara Jacobs a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Sara Jacobs won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Sara Jacobs — 50% model odds (won)
2. Barrett Holman Leak — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts