California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Stephen Houlahan a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Stephen Houlahan won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Stephen Houlahan — 50% model odds (won)
2. Matthew G. Rascon — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts