California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Maxine Waters a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Maxine Waters won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Maxine Waters — 50% model odds (won)
2. Jean M. Monestime — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts