California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Robert Garcia a 41% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Robert Garcia won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Robert Garcia — 41% model odds (won)
  2. Joaquín Beltrán — 34% model odds
  3. Cristina Garcia — 8% model odds (won)
  4. Peter Mathews — 6% model odds
  5. J. Nicole Lopez — 6% model odds
  6. William Moses Summerville — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts