California House 2022 — Model Retrospective
The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tony Moreno a 25% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Aja Smith won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.
- Tony Moreno — 25% model odds
- Aja Smith — 15% model odds (won)
- Bill Spinney — 15% model odds (won)
- Art Peterson — 15% model odds
- John Lordsai Minnella — 15% model odds
- Emmanuel L. Suarez — 15% model odds