California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Derrick R. Gates a 34% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Derrick R. Gates won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Derrick R. Gates — 34% model odds (won)
  2. Joe E., Iii Collins — 22% model odds (won)
  3. Ariana Hakami — 22% model odds
  4. Claire Ragge — 22% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts