California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matthew Vincent Jesuele a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Matthew Vincent Jesuele won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Matthew Vincent Jesuele — 50% model odds (won)
2. Steve Williams — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts