California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Rafael Carcamo a 36% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Rafael Carcamo won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Rafael Carcamo — 36% model odds (won)
  2. Bob Erbst — 33% model odds
  3. Mike Cargile — 31% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts