California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Mark Porter a 33% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. John Mark Porter won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John Mark Porter — 33% model odds (won)
2. Rex Gutierrez — 33% model odds (won)
3. Ernest H. Richter — 33% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts