California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lucie Lapointe Volotzky a 50% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Lucie Lapointe Volotzky won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Lucie Lapointe Volotzky — 50% model odds (won)
2. Melissa Toomim — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts