California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Brad Sherman a 37% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Brad Sherman won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Brad Sherman — 37% model odds (won)
  2. Shervin Aazami — 35% model odds (won)
  3. Jason Potell — 14% model odds
  4. Aarika Samone Rhodes — 7% model odds
  5. Raji Rab — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts