California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Margarita Maria Carranza a 33% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Margarita Maria Carranza won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Margarita Maria Carranza — 33% model odds (won)
  2. Andy Miranda — 33% model odds (won)
  3. Rudy Melendez — 33% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts