California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Garcia a 40% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Mike Garcia won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Mike Garcia — 40% model odds (won)
2. David Rudnick — 30% model odds (won)
3. Mark Pierce — 30% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts