California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Christy Smith a 37% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Christy Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Christy Smith — 37% model odds (won)
2. Quaye Quartey — 35% model odds (won)
3. Ruth Luevanos — 28% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts