California House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Jacobs a 42% chance of winning the California House 2022 primary. Matt Jacobs won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Matt Jacobs — 42% model odds (won)
  2. Paul Nathan Taylor — 33% model odds (won)
  3. Fadde Mikhail — 25% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts